|
| |
| YEAR |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Efficiency (%) |
13 |
15 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
| Cell Cost ($/Wp) |
4.50 |
3.75 |
3.00 |
2.25 |
1.20 |
1.05 |
| Other Cost ($/Wp) |
.75 |
,6 |
,45 |
..30 |
.23 |
.15 |
 The
table to the rignt shows
a projection for the cost of solar photovoltaic modules. The image on the
left shows a energy flux in the southwest of about 8 kWh/m2/day or a
24 hour average of 850 MW per square mile. Using a conversion efficiency of 17%
and a land use efficiency of 65%, the power produced is about 100 MW per square
mile. To generate 250 GWa, equal to half of all current U.S. electricity
production, would occupy 2500 square miles, an area of 50 miles on a side.
The dark green square on the California/Arizona border indicates such an area.
The peak solar flux is 1 kW/m2 , which means that since the sun is
only shining a third of the time (8 kWh/day) the cost per continuous watt is 3
times the peak watt cost. At 2005 prices, 250 GWa would cost $2.5 trillion
dollars. By 2015m this will come down to about $1.1 trillion. Such
plants should be started now but only ramped up in about ten years. In 20
years, all the addional power we could want could be produced cheaper than
present conventional energy rates. As can be seen from the image, using
about a third of the southwest desert would generate 3000 GWa, double all of our
current energy consumption, or equivalently 6 times current production of
electricity.
|
